The meager collection of congressional Democrats standing outside the Capitol last Thursday belied the gravity of the policy on the agenda: the pending elimination of Obamacare tax credits.
The credits, enacted during the pandemic, raised the income ceiling to qualify for subsidies for anyone purchasing ACA insurance. The extra help from the government led to record enrollment, since 2020, the year before the enhanced subsidies went into effect, the number of people with ACA Marketplace coverage has grown by 88% from 11.4 million to the current 21.4 million
But the credits are set to expire in 2026. Republicans refused to renew the program as part of the Big Beautiful Bill. And now Democrats are pushing them to reconsider amid a looming deadline to fund the government.
The Congressional Budget Office, a nonpartisan agency, estimates 2.2 million people will no longer be able to afford insurance when the credits expire in 2026.
“This isn’t a small thing, this isn’t something that is only going to impact the people who claim those credits,” Nevada Congresswoman Kristen McDonald Rivett argued.
“What we are going to see is that this is going to affect the cost of insurance of every single American.”
This has all the makings of a crisis. Which is why McDonald – Rivett and two other members of Congress stood in a hot September sun pleading with Republicans to renew them as part of a deal to fund the government.
“When Republicans repealed the tax credits for the Affordable Care Act, Republicans basically said we don’t care about Americans losing their health insurance,” Nevada Representative Susie Lee said.
But there’s a big difference between this policy dispute and conflicts in the past. This time, Republicans need Democratic votes to pass a looming spending resolution. Democrats have leverage.
The question is, will they use it?
The biggest obstacle is in the Senate. Republicans hold just 53 seats, seven short of the number need to bypass the filibuster and pass legislation.
But the Republican House margins are slim, too, after a special election in Arizona to fill a vacant seat was won by a Democrat. The Republicans now hold 219 House seats, and it takes 218 votes for legislation to pass.
House Republicans did approve a bill that would fund the government through November, but it failed in the Senate. Congress has until the end of the month to pass legislation to keep the government open.
Still, when we asked if they were willing to support a shutdown to force Republicans to restore the credits, the elected officials on hand were circumspect, if not muted.
“That’s the Republicans’ choice,” explained Rep. Steven Horsford (D-7), another Nevada Democrat house member who attended the press conference. “They have the power.”
And therein lies the rub. Because truthfully, in this case, Democrats are not without power. They just seem reluctant to wield it.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer was just as cagey. Appearing on CNN Sunday, he also declined to threaten a shutdown.
“Look, it’s the Republicans shutting down the government,” Schumer told CNN anchor Dana Bash. “What we are asking very simply is bipartisan negotiation.”
It’s a cautious approach that has proven ineffective for Democrats in the past. While Trump has indiscriminately issued dozens of executive orders, wielding power like a king, the Democrats have done little to counter him.
As we have noted in our coverage of Capitol Hill, part of the problem is that Democrats are essentially risk-averse. Even though Trump’s most high-profile moves are often poorly executed or simply theatrical, the Democrats seem woefully ill-equipped to counter them.
To be fair, Democrats might be playing their cards close to the vest. Openly threatening a shutdown now could be premature, and allow Republicans to portray them as obstructionists.
But Democrats have substance on their side, and the power to do something about it. The loss of ACA subsidies has real implications for real people. Forcing a shutdown would provide a stage to make this clear to the public. At the very least, people would know who to blame for the increase in health premiums if Republicans refuse to budge.
That’s what’s at stake for the Democrats. Trump and his Republican cohorts have grown accustomed to winning. He’s so confident he’s willing to fight on any political stage to prove it.
To beat him, the Democrats have to be willing to do something he does all the time: take risks and be bold. The shutdown is a good place to start. The Democrats need to figure that out before it’s too late.
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