The following is a rushed transcript and may contain errors. A proofread version will be made available as soon as possible.

Marc Steiner:

Welcome to the Marc Steiner Show here on The Real News. I’m Marc Steiner. It’s great to have you all with us. And as we begin this conversation today, the beginnings of a ceasefire seems to be taking place in the US-Israeli war on Iran, though Israel continues its bombing campaign. And joining us once again with her insightful analysis is the award-winning Iranian Canadian journalist, Samira Mohyeddin, founder of On the Line Media. She was a 2024-25 journalism fellow at the Women and Gender Studies Institute at the University of Toronto as well, and is back on the real news with us, and it’s great to see you, Samira.

Samira Mohyeddin:

Great to be here with you, Marc, as always.

Marc Steiner:

As we begin this conversation, the news is all about the ceasefire that’s being negotiated and asking Israel to stand down. And of course, Trump is still with his quote from the other day about bombing and destroying Iran completely. Give me your analysis where you think we are really right now, and what do you think is actually happening?

Samira Mohyeddin:

I think that what’s happening behind the scenes is that Israel is very upset that it is not at the negotiating table. Yesterday, Yahir Lapid, who is quote unquote, the official opposition in Israel was very upset that Israel was not consulted at all and that they were hearing about this ceasefire through back channels, that they were not at the table. And part of Iran’s 10-point plan that they offered and that Trump said is something that they can work with was the fact that Lebanon should not be bombed. Lebanon should be part of that ceasefire. And as you point out today, it’s a very fragile negotiation taking place. But as we saw, a hundred bombs were dropped on Beirut within a matter of six minutes, a horrific number that has caused hundreds of deaths

Marc Steiner:

So far. By Israel?

Samira Mohyeddin:

Yes.

Marc Steiner:

Right. See, I’m really curious where you think the dynamic is here. I mean, clearly Trump has always backed Israel to the hilt, and there seems to be some schism here. And I wonder what you think that’s about, why this took place without Israel in consultation, what this might portend.

Samira Mohyeddin:

I think that’s a great question because it’s just speculation, but I imagine that the US administration has come to understand that despite their military prowess, Iran can cause some major global economic setbacks. And the US is certainly part of that. I mean, people in the US going to the pumps right now realize the price of this war and how it affects them. And I don’t know how many billions of dollars right now the US administration has spent on basically a war of attrition. What was won exactly in this war over the past 38 days? They didn’t get the regime change they wanted, although they claim there was regime change. All they did was kill some top commanders, the Supreme Leader, who was then replaced with his son. And so it’s really a bit of a clown show that I think even the generals around President Trump have come to realize that there really was no point in doing this.

The straits of Hormuz is something that Iran has really claimed control over. And the US has really deferred to that, as you can see. There are nearly a thousand ships waiting, vessels waiting to come out of the strait of hormones, and they are just sitting there. And I think that the US has really started to realize that they shouldn’t have done this in the first place.

Marc Steiner:

Let’s take another step backwards with this, because I think it’s really important why this even occurred in the first place. I mean, the Israeli government at the moment has gone further right than any government in Israel ever. And their pursuit of Palestinian land and the warmongering around Iran, something has really shifted inside of Israel, I think politically. How do you think that plays into what happened here? And why do you think this even occurred?

Samira Mohyeddin:

I’ll go back to June of 2025 when the US administration, for the first time in its history, used 230,000 pound bombs to hit Iran with. In order to do what they said was annihilate Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and Trump used the word obliterated. He said that the US had obliterated Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Just a couple days after, Raphael Grossi, who is the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said that Iran was nowhere near developing a nuclear bomb, and that they posed no imminent threat. And then six months later, as this current war was launched, Raphael Grossi again said that Iran was nowhere near a nuclear bomb. So we know that the auspices under which this war was launched was a lie, hearkening back to the weapons of mass destruction of Iraq back in 2003.

Marc Steiner:

You

Samira Mohyeddin:

And I are both old enough to remember

Marc Steiner:

That. Yes, yes, encumbered

Samira Mohyeddin:

It. Yes. Yes. And we also remember that when they didn’t find the weapons of mass destruction, they made up these absurd lies about the weapons of mass destruction being in vans. And as a result, they were … Do you remember that? Yes.

And as a result, they had to keep bombing areas of Baghdad where those vans were. I mean, this was the type of rhetoric that we were hearing. And we’re seeing that same rhetoric being regurgitated in legacy media right now, unfortunately. Iran posed no threat. They were not developing a nuclear bomb. They were nowhere near developing a nuclear bomb. So we know that that was a lie. This war was launched for Israel, and the point of it was to annihilate and decimate Iran, Iranian civilization, not the government, as Trump said himself, it was the infrastructure and to decimate Iran’s domestic capabilities. Why else would you bomb bridges, oil refineries, oil depots, the major steel plants of the Iranian nation. I mean, steel, many people don’t know this. Steel is the second biggest industry in Iran. We have the largest steel plants in all of the Middle East, and we supply the Middle East and North Africa with steel.

So this really is crippling Iran in a way that has nothing to do with wanting to get rid of Iran’s nuclear capabilities.

Marc Steiner:

It seems to me that Israel wanted Iran neutralized, and any alleged or supposed threat that Iran poses, they wanted to get rid of it completely, and Trump agreed to that. I mean, that’s the bottom line here, it seems to me.

Samira Mohyeddin:

Yeah.

Marc Steiner:

And so they still have not stopped Israel from bombing Lebanon, which is still taking place despite the move towards the ceasefire with Iran. The question for me is in this, Iran has a lot of influence inside of Lebanon, which is why they haven’t stopped in Lebanon. And I’m wondering where you think how this plays out. I mean, politically and internationally, where’s this taking us?

Samira Mohyeddin:

We’ve been here so many times with this exact scenario of Israel bombing Lebanon. I mean, we can go back to the early

Marc Steiner:

1980s.

Samira Mohyeddin:

And when Israel occupied Lebanon, people act like Hezbollah just came out of thin air. Hezbollah was created because of occupation, because of Israel’s actions. So it’s a bit disingenuous to look at it just from that one angle of we need to do away with Hezbollah. The fact is that Israel, again, launched a preemptive attack on Lebanon. Hezbollah was not bombing Israel when Israel attacked. Bombing a central Beirut where Hezbollah is not active

Is another issue that is missing a lot from the reporting that is being done by legacy media. You’re seeing whole residential buildings being bombed because maybe they purport that one commander was, I don’t know, walking down the street or whatever. But the images that are coming out of Lebanon right now are horrific. Iran, of course, I’m not sure what they’re hoping will happen. They have placed the fact that Lebanon shouldn’t be bombed, as I noted, in that 10-point plan. And yesterday, J.D. Vance said there was some misunderstanding. We didn’t know that Lebanon was part of this ceasefire plan that-

Marc Steiner:

But it wouldn’t an absurd statement to make.

Samira Mohyeddin:

Yeah. It was so weird because it was right there

Marc Steiner:

In black and white. Right. I mean, given who he is, that was just absolutely absurd. I mean, I think a couple of things. I mean, one of the things here, it seems to me that is taking place is Israel wants to this war to shore up an unpopular government inside of Israel, and let’s know who wants to make sure they stayed in power. So how do you stay in power?

Samira Mohyeddin:

Yep.

Marc Steiner:

You launch a war.

Samira Mohyeddin:

Yep. And he’s done that ever since. I mean, how many times, you could attest to this, Mark, how many times has Benjamin Netanyahu’s court case, for which he is supposed to be testifying on corruption charges, how many times has that been delayed

Because of Gaza, because of Lebanon, because of Iran? Every single time he says, “Oh, I can’t. There’s a war on. ” And he wants this war to continue, perpetual war because he doesn’t need to deal with his own domestic issues. Let’s not forget that before October 7th, hundreds of thousands of people were in the streets in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem protesting against Netanyahu, and that is what he is deathly afraid of. I wouldn’t be surprised, Mark, if all of a sudden Benjamin Netanyahu comes out and says, “We can’t have elections.” Don’t forget, elections are coming up in Israel in 2026. And many people that I’ve spoken to in Israel are very afraid of that sentiment coming from the Lakoud Party and Netanyahu saying, “We can’t have elections right now.” I

Marc Steiner:

Mean, that’s

Samira Mohyeddin:

A real worry for a lot of people.

Marc Steiner:

It is a real worry. And not to digress into this too much, but that would also cause a huge schism inside of Israel’s largest support group, which is the Jewish community in America. I mean, it’s already splitting, but that would just drive a chasm that cannot be bridged, I think, though I think he could do it. I think he will do it.

Samira Mohyeddin:

Yeah. I know you’re interviewing me, but I wanted to ask you what you think about the fact that it’s J.D. Vance who is part of these negotiations and not Whitkoff and Kushner like last time. What do you make of that?

Marc Steiner:

Well, I’ve always thought that J.D. Vance is really the power behind the throne. I mean, Trump is a buffoon, a shrewd buffoon, but a buffoon nevertheless. And J.D. Vance is brilliant. I mean, people may dislike him, but he’s incredibly intelligent and he’s very shrewd and he has good analysis. He’s a strategic thinker. So he’s pushing this for all it’s worth. And I think that’s really what’s going on here. He’s going to make this happen, he’s going to make the peace happen, or he’ll make another war happen. But he’s, I think, the one actually calling the shots inside of DC.

Samira Mohyeddin:

Interesting. Yeah.

Marc Steiner:

I

Samira Mohyeddin:

Think it’s quite significant that it’s him and not Whitkoff and Kushner again. I think that spells something out that for me, and maybe I’m being naive, you let me know, but I think the US administration is quite committed to brokering this ceasefire with Iran, but I think that Israel will not allow for it.

Marc Steiner:

I think that may very well happen. And they want to broker it in large part because they don’t want oil to be interrupted. They don’t want the economy to be affected, which will affect their administration and Republican’s chance of winning again. And I think it’s all wrapped up in this. In Israel being this kind of … What’s the word I want to use? It’s like they have this Messada complex.

Samira Mohyeddin:

Yes. Yeah.

Marc Steiner:

And I think that there’s a real split going on at the moment where Trump cannot, and his forces cannot control what’s happening inside of Israel with Netanyahu, and he needs somebody like Vance who takes no prisoners and will do everything to make the peace happen and keep it there so they can have the oil flowing back and then make their profits. I think this is all built around what’s happening in the Strait Sofa Muse. Yes.

Samira Mohyeddin:

Yeah. And I think it has to do with the midterm elections.

Marc Steiner:

Absolutely.

Samira Mohyeddin:

Also, the MAGA base is sort of disintegrating right now because I think they’re starting to realize that the president that they were sold isn’t the president that they got. And I think Vance is very much aware of that.

Marc Steiner:

Well, I think that’s absolutely true too. And I think that going back to what’s happening there, the whole ceasefire deal could be threatened, I think, because of Israel’s bombing and Israel’s reluctance to stop the war. How do you perceive that?

Samira Mohyeddin:

I think that Israel really wants to continue dominating Iran’s skies and it wants a survival client state, very much what it has in Syria right now. Israel can take water from Syria, occupy those areas right now where Mount Hamonas and every once in a while bomb the country and no one will say anything. And that’s exactly what it wants in Iran. It wants to decimate Iran’s domestic capabilities to survive economically and reduce its ability to protect its territories. And it has effectively done that militarily, I would say. Iran’s anti-aircraft missiles, it’s all of that stuff, the bombing of its airports, it has really affected Iran despite the belly coast statements that you might hear from Iranian leaders. It’s had quite an impact, and I think it wants to continue on that path.

Marc Steiner:

That’s an interesting analysis. I mean, as you were speaking, one of the things I was thinking about, Iran is not Iraq, but as you describe it, describe the reality of how much Iran has been decimated in this war. Israel doesn’t want to end it because they want regime change. They want a friendly Iran.

Samira Mohyeddin:

They do. They want a friendly Iran. They want to survive Iran and they want an Iran that they can dominate. Despite everything, Iran right now is really one of the countries that is the bulwark against Western hegemani in the region. And it positions itself that way. That is how Iran sells itself. But what we’re seeing right now is that really who is being impacted by this are the Iranian people. One of the first strikes that happened in this war was on a primary school killing 168 children, which we’ve seen no accountability for. And the US administration keeps saying, “We’re still investigating.” I mean, you would know within 15 minutes if that was your missile or not. So we know what’s going on here, and unfortunately the biggest losers are the Iranian people over and over and over again.

Marc Steiner:

So I’ve been really wrestling with how this plays out. I don’t think the United States has the power for regime change in Iran, but they want to destabilize it. And Israel wants to control the entire area and the oil companies want the states of moves open so they can begin to make their profits again. And all those fatists are taking are part of what we’re seeing here that most of the major media doesn’t talk about.

Samira Mohyeddin:

No. Yeah. Pardon my French. It’s a huge clusterfuck.

Marc Steiner:

I know that French word.

Samira Mohyeddin:

Yeah. And there was some great analysis by someone in Iran who wrote a piece and the title of it was, It’s The Feast of Vultures. Iran is a massive market that has been closed off from the world for decades, 92 million people and has the second largest oil reserves in the world and is the 17th largest country in the world. So nobody wants more than the US and Israel to dominate this country.

Marc Steiner:

So let me ask you this question before we go, and I’m going to backpedal on what I said earlier. Do you think that if part of the strategy is to neutralize Iran and its power, do you actually think there could be regime change? Do you think the United States and Israel and the West could actually push that far to make that happen?

Samira Mohyeddin:

No, I don’t. There will be no regime change the hands of foreign powers in Iran. There really won’t be because first of all, you don’t have the social movement right now necessary for something like that to happen on the ground. What this war has done, unfortunately, is set back decades, the freedom movement and civil society and civil rights movement that was really burgeoning on the ground in Iran. You’ve had trade union leaders, bus union leaders, teachers, federations all come out against this war. And these are the people that were trying to affect change inside the country. What this war has done is have a rallying around the flag effect, which anybody who had any understanding of Iran’s sociopolitical history would’ve known what happened.

Marc Steiner:

Yeah. And I think that as we conclude this, going back to Israel for a moment, this could have effects within Israel itself. And this is really about Netanyahu staying in power, has to have a war to do it, and has to galvanize his forces within Israel to make that happen. And knowing that the United States will not turn against them in the long run. And I think that’s really what people are not talking about when it comes to this war.

Samira Mohyeddin:

Yeah. Whenever I talk about Israel with reference to even the region, some people in the Iranian diaspora will say to me, “You’re just obsessed with Israel.” But I always say, no, Israel is the main key player in the region. It wants to dominate the entirety of the region. And to point that out is not being obsessed with Israel. It’s really just understanding the Middle East and North Africa and its sociopolitical and historical context and where Israel lies within that. Israel and the United States want to control Iran. There’s no doubt about that, and they will go to great lengths to do it. But what we’re seeing right now is a major schism between these two countries. And I think that this ceasefire will be a flashpoint of that schism.

Marc Steiner:

And to conclude, in your analysis, how do you see that playing out with the ceasefire and Israel United States? Because you just described the schism between two allies in this war with Iran. Go

Samira Mohyeddin:

Ahead, I’m sorry. I just don’t think that the US … I don’t think people in the United States have the stomach for this any longer. I think the 40 days of this bombing, the billions and billions of dollars, the prices at the pumps right now, people are really feeling the pinch. And I also think that the people surrounding Trump have come to realize that their base, the people who put them in power have had enough of this war. They were told that they will not be going into wars in the Middle East, but that is exactly what they’ve done over and over again since coming

Marc Steiner:

To power. Samir, it’s always a pleasure to talk to you. I mean, I really appreciate you taking time once again, and we’ll follow this together and maybe have a second conversation to see how this plays out over the next two weeks, over the next week, because we’re facing a very tenuous time and your analysis is always really important for us to have. So thank you. Always a

Samira Mohyeddin:

Pleasure to speak with you, Mark.

Marc Steiner:

Always. And we’ll be linking to all your work so people can tune in to you.

Samira Mohyeddin:

Thank you so much.

Marc Steiner:

Thank you. Once again, thank you to Samira Mohyeddin for joining us today. And thanks to Cameron Granadino for running the program, Stephen Frank for his editing magic, and producer Rosette Sewali for making it all work behind the scenes, and everyone here at The Real News for making this show possible. But please let me know what you thought about what you heard today, what you’d like us to cover. Just write to me at mss@therealnews.com and I’ll get right back to you. Once again, thank you to Samira Mohyeddin for being our guest today and joining us with her insightful analysis and check out her work at on the line media. And remember, we can’t do this without you. So we can share, join our community by clicking on the subscribe button below and support The Real News Network. So for the crew here at The Real News, I’m Marc Steiner.

Stay involved, keep listening, and take care.