The Bush administration has tried everything to drive a wedge between Iran and Russia - to no avail. The Obama administration now has to deal with some pretty established facts on the ground. In the first part of this report, Pepe Escobar analyzes the implications of the complex relationship between close allies Iran and Russia, articulated on three fronts: nuclear, energy security and weapons.
BioPepe Escobar, born in Brazil is the roving correspondent for Asia Times and an analyst for The Real News Network. He's been a foreign correspondent since 1985, based in London, Milan, Los Angeles, Paris, Singapore, and Bangkok. Since the late 1990s, he has specialized in covering the arc from the Middle East to Central Asia, including the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. He has made frequent visits to Iran and is the author of Globalistan and also Red Zone Blues: A Snapshot of Baghdad During the Surge both published by Nimble Books in 2007. Comments from Registered Members | (Register or log in to make your comment.) | sunrise 2009-08-05
The Anti-Empire Report
August 4th, 2009
by William Blum
www.killinghope.org;
Keeping track of the empire's crimes | alanredman 2009-08-04
Pepe, that seemed like a really interesting piece that got the heart of what really drives foreign policy. However, forgive me for seeming a bit slow but I couldn't really follow it. You said a lot in 6 minutes of so. Is there any chance you could do like an hour long video sometime, maybe not so much as a news piece but as an educational video showing how it all works. Maybe you could link what was really happening in the world with its warped expression in the media. E.g. I heard (although I haven't been able to confirm this) that Saddam Hussain declared that he would use Euros before we invaded and that this might have been what provoked our governments. I've read 'The Grand Chessboard' by Brzezinski and I've tried to teach myself about the petrodollar and how it works but I still couldn't fully follow this piece of yours. You obviously know your stuff, please share this knowledge in a easier to follow, slower paced and far more in-depth way. I know it's your style bu | dart 2009-08-04
The new 30,000 pound guided bunker busting bomb announced by the empire seems like more insane sabre rattling.What effect would an IsraAmera attack on Iran gain?Withdrawal from the NPT,radicalisation, greater militarisation, stronger Russia/China bonds and arms deals,nuclear fallout and no chance of future oil business.Neither would it guarantee geographic control of this pivotal country which has some natural fortress protection from ground invasion.The empire is trying to win the spoils of war on the cheap via intimidation or else its planning to use columbian mercenary forces for future ground forces.Neither would Israel gain-they know full well Iran presents no threat to them.All chutspah and playing to their internal audience we hope. | dart 2009-08-04
Iran should have the choice of at least 3 HC export markets although Israel`s UK ambass. arrogantly said on BBC that their oil/gas is for europe.Pipeline routes to India/ China via Pak.have been deliberatly destroyed by the US making europe the more likely export market but this needs foreign capital injection and the Nabucco (western backed) or Russian Blue stream pipeline.The US is squeezing Iran like a cheap mafia extortion racketeer to get what it wants while China would provide the best loan arrangements and long term contracts,technology transfer and possibly LNG terminal development.(AFAIUI Iran imports from the North (Turkm.,Azer.) for its populous north.)So now we hear anti Russian protesters but its the west that sanctions them not Russia.We live in intersting times. | h.lim 2009-08-04
EXCELLENT REPORT PEPE on energy politics. It is in Russia's (& China's) strategic interest to support Iran. In addition to Russian missiles defending Iran's Russian-built nuclear reactor in Bushehr. Iran has 2 vetos (China & Russia) in the UN Security Council. Expect Iran to join Shanghai 5 founders (Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan & Tajikistan) as a full member of SCO AND Venezuela to join as SCO observer.
| Hossein Ziai 2009-08-04
This is a fine report. The Iran-Russia "axis" is devastating for Iranians who are losing on several fronts in this relationship. Iran is losing its Caspian Sea oil exploration/export, etc; and foremost the recent Iranian set of events, some say "coup", where a small but very powerful faction has taken over the government by staging a ridiculously simplistic fraud calling it "election" is allegedly directed by Russians. No matter what is the truth the perception in Iran is that Russians are influencing events in Iran and this is one of the reasons we have seen the new chants against Russia in the demonstrations and even during Friday Prayers. | DJ2008 2009-08-04
Great report yet again from Pepe Escobar on the REAL stakes underlying all of the rhetoric that is predominantly reported by Western press sources. It would've been helpful for a bit more detail on how China fits into this so-called Russo-Iranian-Venezuelan "Axis". And to 'dart' below, agreed 100%... | dart 2009-08-04
I expect most people are well aware of this analysis and are watching NATO (the organisation that expands as the threat which created it diminishes) being dominated by the empire as a tool for its agressive expansion especially against Russia.The planned Nabucco pipeline would, under western conrol, supply europe but it needs the input of Iranian S. Pars gas field near the gulf to be economically feasible.The competing Russian Blue Stream pipeline project is what the west fears through its lust for global control.Azerbaijan and Armenia could become key to the Russian scheme`s likely success.But what deals are Rafsanjani, Big oil and Israel cooking up?NB recent discoveries in S. Azerbaijan & HM is Azeri.Putin has no need of the phoney western democracy rulebook-it was the US who tried to steal Russian assets,impoverish his country,challenge his borders,destabilise neighbours and threaten nuclear war. |
PEPE ESCOBAR, SENIOR ANALYST, TRNN: You all know obsessed-by-Eurasia Zbig Brzezinski, a man who has President Obama's undivided attention. Well, he's been preaching since the 1990s that it's essential to break up the Tehran-Moscow-Beijing axis and torpedo the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the SCO. No wonder Dr. Zbig is scared. Russia and China, along with Iran, want the end of the dollar as a global reserve currency. They want a multipolar basket of currencies. Not cool with the Obama administration, to say the least. Then add the energy picture: Iran is number two in the world in proven oil reserves—11.2 percent—and in gas reserves—15.7 percent—according to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2008. Say Iran decides to have a more unclenched-fist relationship with Washington. US big oil would have a ball with Iran's Caspian energy wealth. So whatever the rhetoric, no US administration would ever want to deal with a hypernationalist Iranian regime, such as the current military dictatorship of the mullah-tariat. The real Washington scare, from Bush to Obama, is the [prospect] of a Russia-Iran-Venezuela axis. Let's see why. Together, Iran and Russia hold 17.6 percent of the world's proven oil reserves. The Persian Gulf petro-monarchies' de facto control by Washington, they hold 45 percent. The Moscow-Tehran-Caracas axis controls 25 percent. If we add Kazakhstan's 3 percent and Africa's 9.5 percent, this new axis is in fact a counter-power to American hegemony over the Arab Middle East. The same thing applies to gas. If we add the axis to the Central Asian 'Stans, we reach 30 percent of world's gas production. As a comparison, the whole Middle East, including Iran, currently produces only 12.1 percent of the world's needs in gas. Iran will produce nuclear energy for civilian use. That's inevitable. And this will turbo-charge the new, emerging multipolar world. Iran and Russia are de facto showing to boast China and India [sic], and it's not very wise to rely on US controlling the bulk of oil in the Arab Middle East. All of them are very much aware that Iraq remains occupied and that Washington's obsession remains the privatization of Iraq's enormous oil wealth. This is all linked to a multipolar military system. Since last year, Iranian officials have said that sooner or later Iran and Russia will start trading in rubles. Gazprom is willing to be paid for oil and gas in rubles and not dollars. And OPEC's secretariat, they have been saying for over a year now that OPEC will be trading in euros before 2020. So imagine the axis Moscow-Tehran-Caracas, but also Qatar and Norway, for instance, and sooner or later the Gulf emirates breaking up with the petrodollar. It will take years, of course, but it will eventually happen. And that means the end of the dollar as the world's reserve currency, the end of the world paying for America's massive budget deficits, and the end of the Anglo-American financial stranglehold over the world that's been lasting since the 19th century. The energy equation between Iran and Russia is much more complex. It's a matter of Pipeline-istan at its peak, since the US, still, during the '90s, Zbig Brzezinski was a big player and went to ["BAH-ko"] in 1999, decided to hit the Caspian in full force by supporting the BTC oil pipeline and the BTS gas pipeline. Tehran, isolated from the West, lacks foreign investment to upgrade its 1970s-built energy installations. Enter Russia's Gazprom, for which Iran is literally a gold mine. The Bush administration, they started with weakening Russia and isolating Iran in Central Asia. Wrong. They only accelerated the strategic energy cooperation between Russia and Iran. Fourteen years ago, Moscow committed to finish the construction of a nuclear reactor at Bushehr. This was a project started by that self-proclaimed [inaudible] of the Gulf for the US, the Shah of Iran, remember, in 1974. The Russians finally entered the picture. And by December 2001, Moscow also started to sell missiles to Tehran—a surefire way of making extra money, offering protection for strategic assets such as Bushehr. But most of all there are geopolitical reasons. Former President Vladimir Putin used Bushehr as a key diplomatic peon in his double-chessboard match with the West and the Iranians. It was Putin who launched the idea of enriching uranium for Iran in Russia—talk about a strategic asset in terms of managing a global nuclear crisis. Ahmadinejad, and most of all the supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, they gave Putin a flat refusal. The Russian response was even more foot-dragging, and even mild support for more US-sponsored sanctions against Tehran. Tehran then got the message that Putin was not an unconditional ally. So in August 2006, the Russians land a new deal for the construction and supervision of two new nuclear plants. This all means that the Iranian nuclear dossier simply cannot be solved without Russia.DISCLAIMER:Please note that TRNN transcripts are typed from a recording of the program; The Real News Network cannot guarantee their complete accuracy. |
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