What has just happened in Iran? Was it a revolution, or something entirely different? Whatever the West may make of it, Pepe Escobar argues the 1979 Islamic revolution has now turned into "the military dictatorship of the mullahtariat." He examines the three key actors at play: the military, the clergy and the street. And provides some clues of what may lie ahead - for the regime and for ordinary Iranians. BioPepe Escobar, born in Brazil is the roving correspondent for Asia Times and an analyst for The Real News Network. He's been a foreign correspondent since 1985, based in London, Milan, Los Angeles, Paris, Singapore, and Bangkok. Since the late 1990s, he has specialized in covering the arc from the Middle East to Central Asia, including the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. He has made frequent visits to Iran and is the author of Globalistan and also Red Zone Blues: A Snapshot of Baghdad During the Surge both published by Nimble Books in 2007.
Comments from Registered Members | (Register or log in to make your comment.) | shel_tr 2009-07-02
Tildentucker: You've accused Dr. Zarrabi of lacking knowledge and understanding. With all due respect -- what on earth has that got to do with his arguments??!! What, SPECIFICALLY, does wilayat al-faqih have to do with his comments?? What, SPECIFICALLY, are his "misconceptions" about the Ulema? You're simultanesously cavalier about labeling somebody, while providing no support for your name-calling. In some circles, that's called "intellectual laziness"... | siamak 2009-07-02
@tildentucke, and make u look like member of RG or basiji or mola with out turban or with turban, in any case u have this right to express yourself and all this unrest and bloodshed is because this people, try do find same right,buy the way take look at this site http://www.ghthirdeye.com to see pile of unfold of ballet,which pretend came out of ballet box and so more.... | tildentucker 2009-07-02
@Dr. Kazem, the evolution that you have described reveals your lack of knowledge and understanding of wilayat al-faqih, which is the "theocratic" basis of the Iranian government. It also seems that you have some significant misconceptions about the 'Ulema (so-called "clerics") of Shia Islam. Please learn about this system of scholarship and the concepts of imamat and wilayat before you publish anymore of your God-complex psychoanalysis of Iran's religious leadership. Simply putting all religions in the same box when it comes to the concept of divine authority is intellectually lazy. | Dr. Kazem Zarrabi 2009-07-02
(6) These are all man-made entities, and the result of hypertrophic social evolution in general and evolution of religions in particular. (end) | Dr. Kazem Zarrabi 2009-07-02
(5) You may sense that they boast your divine role for their own selfish interests. But, you don’t care anymore. You are convinced that your followers are right about your divine nature. Gradually, and step by step, you taste the power of fame and glory, and still more and more power and glory come to you day after day. The transformation is complete! The dark side has succeeded in his mission to convince you that you are a holy one. You may even start to feel and see things differently. Isn’t this wonderful? Frankly speaking, this is a disaster! This is how the Dark Side wins i.e. by completing the transformation to the Dark Side. The truthful message in the Abrahamic scriptures is against clericalism. According to the scriptures, especially if we read them correctly, God is the only supreme entity! In the Abrahamic religions there cannot be any supreme Pope, bishop, rabbi, or ayatollah. (continued) | Dr. Kazem Zarrabi 2009-07-02
(4) This is very familiar event in history that has happened time after time. Let us see how someone is succumbed to the temptation to assume a divine role. First, there are those who almost worship you as a divine-related entity. They are so many, and you don’t want to disappoint them. You know for sure that you have no connection with God whatsoever. But, you don’t say this to anyone because in your professional world this would sound very bad. It would be regarded as an insult to your profession, and of course to the rest of your colleagues. So you let others to regard you a divine entity. After a while you start believing that indeed you have connection with God because those around you, who need to hide behind your “divine role” i.e. in order to maximize their own gains, keep telling you that you are indeed a divine-related entity. (continued) | Dr. Kazem Zarrabi 2009-07-02
(3) As Mr. Pepe Escobar explains these hardcore and hardwired elements of the theocracy assume that their roles are divine related. Therefore, from their point of view, all that they decide are the wishes of divine! So, what is the election for when the grand ayatollahs who are connected to divine already know God’s favorite for presidency? Why to obey the constitution when God commands otherwise? For the grand ayatollahs constitutional matters, freedom, and elections are nothing more than fancy words to control the masses. Are these people truly connected to God? I think otherwise! They have been deceived by their own wishful thinking. The lust for power has blindfolded the coup leaders. Their endless desires to grab more and more power, and crush any opposition to their imaginary divine roles have no limits. (continued) | Dr. Kazem Zarrabi 2009-07-02
(2) In fact, origin of the 2009 coup is stretched back to 2005 Election (read selection) when Mr. Ahmadinejad was selected as the president. Since then Mr. Ahmadijejad and his power-block have been recruiting his former friends and colleagues mainly from RG ranks and other ultra-conservative fanatical factions to different government and state posts. These pro-coup elements within the government and state agencies have worked as the basin for 2009 rigged election and selection of Mr. Ahmadinejad. In fact, the constitution and elections in the Islamic Republic have never been regarded as a priority especially with hardliners who make up the hard core elements of the clerical state. This is why the world should not recognize this election results. (continued) | Dr. Kazem Zarrabi 2009-07-02
(1) Thanks to Mr. Pepe Escobar for providing a detailed perspective on the staged coup in Iran i.e. by the pact between ayatollah Khamenei, Ahmadinejad, and the Revolutionary Guards (RG). I should also express my gratitude to Paul Jay the founder and CEO of the Real News Network (RNN) for initiating an independent news and analysis platform especially when the major news network have all been either tacitly or overtly reduced to reflect only on the interests of multinational corporatism and major power blocks in which international mafia cannot be excluded. This is why independent RNN should be supported by all independent thinking citizens of the planet i.e. disregarding their national flags. (continued) | kjohn810 2009-07-01
tildentucker, The article you refer Ali to makes the argument the Iranian elections were fair enough. It cites a poll that backs up this case and says there was “only one poll carried out by a western news organization” and “conducted by an independent entity called the Center for Public Opinion (CPO) of the New America Foundation.” Why does this article fail to tell us that the poll was jointly carried out with “Terror Free Tomorrow”, and that the CPO is part of the TFT, not the NAF? TFT is a Washington-based think tank with powerful US politicians on its advisory board, many of which have publicly endorsed US military intervention in Iran, including former Senate majority leader Bill Frist and Senator John McCain. The five person board also includes Lee Hamilton and Thomas Kean of 9/11 Commission fame. Most importantly, the poll reversed it’s prediction made before the election "The current mood indicates that none of the candidates will likely pass the 50 percent threshold neede | tildentucker 2009-07-01
Dear theali, because of your love for the "math," I would like to suggest this article to you, if you haven't read it already: http://www.counterpunch.org/amin06222009.html
Peace. | h.lim 2009-07-01
Absolutely excellent piece Pepe! Thanks for enlightening us... THIS is why RNNN is SO important, if they provide journalists like you a voice! | theali 2009-07-01
Dear tildentucker, there are enough evidence to show that there was an election fraud. The numbers look convincingly made up, even the Washington Post published (which initially said Ahmadinejad could have won) is saying that chances of a natural election producing the reported numbers are 1-in-200 [1]. Also can you point out another instance in history where an election resulted in over 100% of the eligible voters casting a ballot? This is a first for Iran’s history with its electoral process. If Ahmadinejad is the most popular president in Iran’s history, why are there people, willing to die in order demonstrate that he is NOT their elected official. Can you point out another instance in history where an official with 63% of the votes has resorted to extreme violence, in response to peaceful demonstrations?
[1] http://tinyurl.com/l5cchn
| tildentucker 2009-07-01
@theali, you discount the conclusions of others by labeling them "conspiracy fantasies," but please explain which part of your analysis of the Iranian election is not based on groundless speculation and a fundamental suspicion of Escobar's "mullatariat." Especially unconvincing is your mind experiment about Ahmedinejad's supporters not being able to afford going on vacation being proof of election fraud. Sounds like the type of argument that would be used to support a "conspiracy fantasy." | theali 2009-07-01
Dear dart, I need some clarifications on your questions, first “Who is funding the greenies?” what funds are you talking about? Where have you seen ‘the greenies’ spend a lot of money that has caused you to raise such a point? “What is the view from the ‘masses’ who voted MA?” there is an earlier video on TRNN that interviews Ahmadinejad supporters. In that video we see his supporters and I particularly remember a comment by a girl, she was very proud of Ahmadinejad’s bravery. Ironically her comments mirrored the ill-conceived comments expressed in a North Korean documentary about the “great leader” being defiant to US powers (while he is accepting international help on basic necessities). “Why does the west support Rafsanjani and his boy?” Again what support are you talking about, Rafsanjani accepted defeat, and only moved to protect his investments, his current position on the turn of events in Iran only s | theali 2009-07-01
Dear sunrise, I must say your 24/7/365 postings on the Iran coverage are very peculiar. While I think that you have good intensions, its clear that your take on the current events in Iran is slanted. The “Green Party” that you refer has no leniency toward the US agendas. As George Friedman states in an Stratfor article, the difference between Mousavi and Ahaminejad wrt US demands would be very slim. Mousavi’s position wrt key strategic decisions for Iran will be exactly the same as Ahaminejad. Mousavi is a key figure from the Iran revolution (that was created as a conscience of US policies), and to label him as a pre-west elitist would be the same as McCain labeling Obama (who was raised by a single mother and help of food stamps) as an elitist. Pepe’s reporting is aligned with the realities of the current events. Your suggested conspiracy fantasies have no basis in reality, but the road ahead is long, and many forces will try to take advantage of the genuine mo | theali 2009-07-01
Dear tildentucker, lets think a bit a about 3 million extra votes casted in the cities admitted by the Guardian Council. They are saying that not only 100% of the people voted in those cities, but that a large number of travelers to those cities votes overwhelmingly for Ahmadinejad. The arguments I am seeing, is that “Ahmadinejad represents the poor working class of people.” Lets take that its face value, but those poor working class do not have the luxury of traveling all over the country at will. The inflation is so high that the working class can barely afford to put meat on the table, more than twice a month. I find it very hard to swallow that the populist movement happen to be the vacationing type that casted votes cities other than their hometowns! Come on over 100% of eligible voters casted a ballot (in 50 voting stations), you must be kidding me to think that has ever happen in a natural electoral process. | tildentucker 2009-06-30
@Swansen I don't know what your definition of fact is, but if you're referring to the voting "irregularities" found by the Guardian Council, you should do a little more research and dig beneath the spin that the mindless media (e.g. TRNN) put on it. It turns out these "irregularities," most prominently the over 100% voter turnout in some areas are just a legitimate result of the way Iran conducts presidential elections. And here's a hint: It has nothing to do with evil "mullahs" stuffing ballot boxes. Even the use of the word "mullah" gives away the real worldview and agenda of the "journalists". It is classic Orientalism. Try reading Edward Said. | dart 2009-06-30
More images of attractive young females for the market economies` consumers to absorb avoiding the bearded Islamic look whenever possible.When will TRNN ask some simple questions like:Who is funding the greenies?What is the view from the masses who voted MA?Why does the west support Rafsanjani and his boy? What socio economic improvements for which the greenies are rioting could be generated by firstly removing economic sanctions and secondly guaranteeing security especially from attack fanatical zionists? | Swansen 2009-06-30
@tildentucker
Um... it is fact that the election was stolen... mathematical fact, based on the statistics given out by the current government... A link to the article was posted here on the real news and their government are a bunch of crooks, but whatever, believe what you will. | dart 2009-06-30
Where have we heard the JFK`s words:`it`s the appearance that matters`.Ah yes the promo DVD for TRNN.So no coverage of CIA/Mossad means there is none -right?Fortunateley there are many with questioning minds as yet another phoney photo hits the internet to cheer on the greenies.http://palestinethinktank.com/2009/06/29/iconic-photo-of-iranian-protester-is-faked-reveals-italys-most-conservative-mainstream-paper/
Let this link of truth be the one that travels farthest. | sunrise 2009-06-30
pepe Escobar is definitely a violate promoter to serve the west agendas. To tell a blind that you can see, and denied the US, CIA Brit’s involvement is to say, let’s continue the bloody murder whoever the resources we need as long as we employ propaganda machine denies all the atrocities v. the 4 corner world, we got it made. The world can not ever have peace, and all the propagandas in the world to falsely promote a farce of “democratic” “freedom” and “peace” are a sugar coated murdering machine. And the story continues, tomorrow when sun arises the US, CIA and Brits slaughter another country for their coconut, sugar, oil, mineral and human life. When US laugh all the way to the bank, another millions of child, women, elderly left without food, clothes and water.
You can deny all the wrong doings as long as you want, but the facts and reality stays.
| sunrise 2009-06-30
US citizen must be so very proud of our government's barbarian’s act to overthrow the third world countries 24/7/365. I wonder if all the anti-world, peace demonstration are designed to put-up a show to cover the salvage act, and how come nothing changes? The brutality gets worse by minutes. Right after US, CIA hand-made Green Party" in Iran, come another Honduras overthrow democratic president Miguel Tinker-Salas US, CIA bloody trail all over the wall. There are 5 overthrow in Thai till Ivy League programmed pro-west elite took the prime minister seat. The over throw by US, Brit. CIA all over the south Asian until today. US still in Stone Age states, we need move forward to complete with humanities, and civil manner. The world should not support a nation with barbarian’s state of mind to go around the world by murder to exercise animal act. And pepe Escobar is definitely a violate promoter to serve the west agendas. To tell a blind that you can see, and denied the US, CIA Brit’s | sunrise 2009-06-30
The Road to Iraq and Afghanistan (and maybe Iran and Pakistan) started with the invasion of Panama under the direction of George H.W. Bush, the father. After the invasion, billions of dollars were removed from the Panamanian banking system by federal mandate, just in time to help bail out the failed S & L industry which collapsed under the weight of corruption and "deregulation. http://www.brasschecktv.com/page/654.html
| tildentucker 2009-06-30
Many times I have come very close to supporting to The Real News with a donation, and I have frequently recommended it to others. I have been severely disappointed by the coverage of the Iranian elections, however, and now feel that I cannot support TRRN. Pepe Escobar does not understand the "mullahs" at all. He speaks as if an Islamic government is illegitimate in its essence and that a "democracy" is the only legitimate government. He also accepts the highly questionable premises of the mainstream corporate media, that: (1) this is the people vs. a repressive government, (2) the election was stolen, and (3) that Ahmedinejad and Ayatollah Khamanei, and the rest of the Iranian government are liars. All of this without any proof or evidence. It makes me wonder what else I have believed from Escobar that is not based on evidence. What's worse is that the non-Escobar coverage of the Iranian elections on TRNN what even more mindless. This is depressing and a Requiem for a Real News Ne | runiter 2009-06-30
Another beautiful work by Pepe. Right on point. On behalf of Iranian people we thank you and RealNews for not forgetting about us. |
TranscriptPEPE ESCOBAR, SENIOR ANALYST, TRNN: Yes, they shall be remembered forever. In the end, the Tehran wall didn't fall. But beyond the blood, sweat, and tears, we've got to understand what happened. The music in the background is by the Waterboys, the words by Irish genius William Butler Yeats, the mix by an English musician on YouTube. What happened in Iran was the brutal installation of a military dictatorship of the mullah-tariat. The world, the Western world especially, will still have to live and deal with Supreme Leader/Ayatollah Khamenei, Ahmadinejad, and an ultra right-wing faction of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the IRGC, for years to come. The key man to watch is Major General Mohammad Ali Jafari. In 2006 he became the Revolutionary Guard's top commander. At the time he was already thinking in terms of an internal, not an external enemy. He was thinking about the Velvet Revolution, in fact. It's essential to remember that only a few days before the election, Brigadier General Yadollah Javani—he is the Revolutionary Guard's political director—was already accusing Mousavi of starting a green revolution. He said, and I quote, the Guards "will suffocate it before it is even born." The Revolutionary Guards, they have always been about repression. They literally kill or supported the killing of secular political groups in Iran during the 1980s. After Khomeini died in 1989, they split into two sides. One side thought that Iran needed an opening. They were afraid of what? A popular counterrevolution. Today they are reformist leaders. The other side was ultra-conservative. They include Jafari and Javani, [whom] we just mentioned, as well as Ahmadinejad and his current minister of the Interior, the sinister Sadegh Mahsouli, the man who oversaw the election. The religious strand runs parallel to the military strand. Remember, we're talking about the military dictatorship of the mullah-tariat. So we must refer to the Hojjatieh. That's an ultra-sectarian group founded in the 1950s in Iran. Ayatollah Khomeini, the father of the Islamic Republic, he banned them in 1983. But they were back in the '90s, full force. And their spiritual leader is Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi, known as "the Crocodile" in Iran. Two weeks before the elections, Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi issued a fatwa legitimizing any means necessary to keep Ahmadinejad in power. And that was the green light to steal the elections. We've got to remember that Ahmadinejad replaced no less than 10,000 key government bureaucrats with his cronies in these past four years alone. These people are in charge of the maze of bodies involved in the election and in the vote count. Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi believes that Iran's supreme leader is chosen by Allah, when Allah tells the 86 members of the Council of Experts to find a leader. That's how Khamenei was found, even though he was a minor scholar. Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi wants an Hokumat-e Islami, a hard-line Islamic government sanctioned by Allah—forget about democracy. Who are the devout disciples of Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi? Well, a lot of our key players, starting with Ahmadinejad himself; then his intelligent minister, Gholam Hossein Mohseni-Ejehei; Ahmadinejad's top counselor, Mojtaba [Samareh Hashemi]; Saeed Jalili, the National Security Council and now chief nuclear negotiator; many of the top Revolutionary Guard commanders; the Basij paramilitary militia, starting with their leader, Hasan Taeb, down to their loping proletariat millions; and, of course, the Iranian judiciary itself. So now these ultras are smashing the old first-generation leaders of the revolution, like Hashemi Rafsanjani. And the Revolutionary Guards now take over the bulk of Iran's economy as well. It's a monopoly. Rafsanjani is a very well-connected billionaire. The Revolutionary Guards, they certainly don't need any competition. This will be an even more repressive hard-core Islamic government than a republic. Remember, officially we're talking about the Islamic Republic of Iran. And this is one of the key reasons behind the street protests. Allah, of course, has to choose the next supreme leader. Khamenei is ill. Mojtaba Khamenei, his mysterious but very powerful son, is behind the ultras but does not have what it takes to become a leader. And Rafsanjani is the head of the 86-member Council of Experts who chooses the leader. Rafsanjani's trying to conduct his own mini-revolution in Qom, going against Khamenei. The ultras will try everything to squash him. This is a bitter war at the very top of the regime. The ultras, they want Ayatollah Mesbah-Yazdi or one of his protégés as the next supreme leader. If this military dictatorship of the mullah-tariat continues to appease its working-class support base with [inaudible] redistribution of oil revenues, they can stay in power for a long time. The West may try to boycott them, but not Russia and China. Iran's oil and gas are absolutely crucial to Europe, not to mention Asia. Nobody's going to embargo Iran's oil exports. So the regime will be able to repress and suppress whatever comes its way, using or not using religion to justify it. There are echoes of the former Soviet Union in all this. But what happened in the streets is more like Prague in 1968 and not the turbulence before the death of communism in 1989. In the end, the revolution was not Twitter, because there was no revolution. The army, the Revolutionary Guards, they didn't support the people. And the bazaari merchants and the oil and gas industry workers, must they didn't go on strike. So no revolution. People are angry, of course, because they felt their vote had been stolen. There was nothing ideological about it. When they took to the streets, they made clear that they wanted a better economy, less unemployment, a less stifling regime, a little more freedom of speech and of dress for women, less fiery rhetoric from Ahmadinejad—in summary, want a better life. But on the other side of the spectrum, there were the millions of Basij who are very, very happy with the meagre and shabby existence the revolution grants them and deeply, deeply alienated from Western culture. This doesn't mean this was a Gucci-YouTube-Twitter uprising of the petite bourgeoisie. It's easy to fall into the temptation, because the people in the streets, after all, they are supported by the West. But to believe that Iran's national interests and the aspirations of the excluded Iranian masses will be defended by this new military dictatorship of the mullah-tariat is to completely miss the point. Yes, the ultras are paranoid. They know they're virtually encircled by the US military machine. They know about the Bush administration's $400 million for a regime change. What they could not foresee was the force of a spontaneous movement. Iran's civil society, they count on more or less 28,000 associations. But they are not strong and structured enough to anchor a protest movement, large-scale protest movement. Unions have been smashed. Mousavi was the vessel that challenged a lots of pent-up rage and frustration in Iran. With or without him, the road will be long. Civil disobedience is key. The sound of "Allahu Akbar" will be echoing from the rooftops for many, many days and weeks to come. When Khamenei sided with Ahmadinejad, instead of an arbiter he became a gang leader. The social contract between millions of Iranians and the revolution was broken. There will be blood, yes, and there will be resistance as well. Iran is a very sophisticated society, but it will be a long and winding road. So no reform and no revolution. And then all that sound and fury was drowned by the death of the man in the mirror. Let the Earth bear witness: those that live and will continue to live the dream of a better Iran should not and will not be forgotten.
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Please note that TRNN transcripts are typed from a recording of the program; The Real News Network cannot guarantee their complete accuracy. | |
 
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